Three predictions for Texas Tech's defense in 2016

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Texas Tech is set to open preseason camp on Monday, which means its time to lock in our preseason predictions for the 2016 Red Raiders.

Today, we make three predictions for Jah'Shawn Johnson and the Texas Tech defense.

Texas Tech's defense - statistically - had the worst pass rush in the Big 12 a year ago, finishing the 2015 season with a conference low 19 sacks. In fact, the Red Raider pass rush hasn't been very productive for essentially half a decade. I think that changes this year.

In defensive ends Kolin Hill, Gary Moore and Zach Barnes, the Red Raiders have a rotation of natural pass rushers that they simply haven't for some time. It's a group that looked great all spring and got after the Texas Tech offensive line at times.

The team also has a plus pass-rusher on the interior in Breiden Fehoko. If he gets better play next to him at nose tackle than he did last year - and I believe he will thanks to guys such as Ondre Pipkens and Broderick Washington - he will finally be able to show it.

Most David Gibbs defenses have traditionally hovered around the 30 mark in the sack category, and I think this unit will hit that mark in 2016.

The Red Raider defense was a sieve against the run a year ago, giving up an appalling 280 rushing yards per game. That was the worst mark among Power Five teams, and the Red Raiders' inability to stop the run was the reason the team couldn't get stops once teams such as LSU, Baylor and Oklahoma got rolling downhill.

Call me crazy, but I think Texas Tech will cut the number down and give up 215 or fewer yards a game.

You may think that's a wild prediction, but keep this in mind: That total would still would put the Red Raiders in the 100s ranking-wise for rush yardage allowed per game.

It's year two in Gibbs' system, a defense that is primarily predicated on stopping the run first and foremost and then baiting quarterbacks into confusing looks and false coverages in obvious passing situations.

I think this will happen in 2016 for two reasons. First, most of the front-line players in Texas Tech's front seven have been in this system for a full year. By default, all of those returning players should have a better understanding of their responsibilities and roles within the system. Meaning, at the very least, they should be in position to make a play more often than they were in 2015, which should result in fewer big plays surrendered on the ground.

Secondly, the Red Raider front seven, while dependent on youngsters for depth, will actually be deeper than it was a year ago. That means more players should be able to rotate in and out with less of a drop off, meaning Texas Tech's defenders shouldn't be exhausted in the third and fourth quarters like they were a year ago.

The signs are pointing upward - slightly - for this rush defense.

Gibbs' defenses do one thing well above all else: force turnovers. Despite a rough 2015 overall, there's no denying how much more effective the Red Raiders were at forcing turnovers. The team logged 10 more takeaways in 2015 than it did in 2014, good enough to rank in the top 25 nationally in that category.

The improvement was impressive, and it was a big reason why Texas Tech was able to get some big stops at key moments. And now, I think that number will go up again to at least 30 in 2016.

Gibbs preached to his team all offseason that he wants them to lead the country in turnovers this fall. That's the primary objective for this unit, and the Red Raiders have had the message pounded into their heads over and over again .

As a result, and because it's year two in Gibbs' system, I think Texas Tech will record more takeaways than it did a season ago. This should be seen as another natural progression for the defense, especially with so many experienced veterans in the secondary.