Three predictions for Texas Tech's offense in 2016
RELATED: Texas Tech's defense may be better sooner than you think
Texas Tech is set to open preseason camp on Monday, which means its time to lock in our preseason predictions for the 2016 Red Raiders.
We start today with three predictions for Pat Mahomes and the offense.
No Texas Tech wide receiver will top 1,000 yards, but three will reach 750.
Texas Tech's leading receiver from last season, Jakeem Grant, is off to the NFL. And while I believe this 2016 group of pass catchers might be the deepest and most talented that Texas Tech has had in some time, there is no clear-cut No. 1 receiver waiting in the wings to replace Grant.
It could be Derrick Willies, Cameron Batson, Dylan Cantrell or someone else entirely, but no one has established themselves as the top dog and I don't believe one will. Maybe that's not a bad thing?
I think three different Red Raiders receivers will record 750 or more yards, with Mahomes distributing the ball to the hottest hand and best matchup on a week-to-week basis.
It's not a wild prediction, but I do think it's a smart one.
Pat Mahomes will throw for 5,000 yards, 40-plus touchdowns, fewer than 10 interceptions, and he will also rush for fewer than 400 yards.
Mahomes was electric at the helm of the Texas Tech offense a year ago, making highlight plays look almost routine. By the time the 2015 season ended, the sophomore had piled up 4,653 passing yards, 36 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and added 456 yards and 10 more touchdowns on the ground.
He's only going to get better as a junior, but what exactly does that mean for his production?
For as much as he wowed everyone last season, Mahomes had troubles at times making routine plays. When it didn't work out, Mahomes would throw some potluck interceptions and miss on the easy underneath yardage.
That was the biggest thing that Kliff Kingsbury worked on him with during the offseason. It was about becoming a better decision maker and more cerebral quarterback. From all reports, dropping baseball allowed him to make big strides in that department, meaning he's doing a better job of taking what the defense gives him.
In my opinion, that means he'll spread the ball around more, take off with the ball in his lands less and take fewer chances downfield. As a result, I think his passing stats will see a solid uptick while his rushing yards drop off some.
It's a trade-off that I believe is better for this football team in the long run.
The Red Raiders will not rush for 2,000 yards as a team this fall
Texas Tech graduated its most productive tailback in two decades in DeAndre Washington, and the Red Raiders will be looking to replace him while breaking in a new-look offensive line at the same time. Adding on to that, projected starting running back Justin Stockton - while electric and an incredible home run threat - has yet to prove that he can be consistently productive between the tackles.
Add to that the fact that Mahomes will likely run less, and I just don't see this team running for 2,000 yards in 2016 after rushing for 2,487 a year ago.
It's not like Texas Tech regularly rushes for 2,000 yards as a team anyway. In fact, the Red Raiders hadn't even rushed for more than 1,600 in Kingsbury's first two years on campus.
So, the rushing yardage will go down overall.