Coaching search season is a bit like high-stakes poker. When you are in the position as a decision-maker, you’d better be ready to take some unexpected chances and not blink when it’s time to bluff.
Texas Tech sat down at the table with some built-in advantages, especially once Kirby Hocutt pulled the plug on the Matt Wells’ tenure as early as he did. And the first-blush sense is that Hocutt and the committee he worked with to hire a new coach pulled out a pretty sizable win by snaring Joey McGuire as the Red Raiders’ new leader.
Consider all the factors, real, current and potential:
1. Stating the obvious: Texas Tech needed a coach and even with the mid-season dismissal was fighting an uphill battle in the pecking order behind USC, LSU and Miami when Wells was fired.
2. Once TCU and Gary Patterson parted ways, that churned things up considerably with not only another competitor, but one in the same state, same conference and a likely suitor for many of the same potential candidates.
3. Particularly with TCU joining the fray, the ripple effect of who will or won’t be candidates for the other jobs mentioned above was starting to overlap with the Texas Tech search.
4. The schools where some of the potential candidates currently work were starting to pony up with contract extensions and more money.
Instead of knee-jerking and getting swayed by the notable shiny objects that slid across the table, the Texas Tech committee kept its cards close to the vest and waited for the right move.
Consider the possibilities:
--- Tech could have made a quick, strong push for Texas-San Antonio coach Jeff Traylor to try and end the process quickly. Safe hire, probably fairly popular with the fan base and the risk would be similar to the one that McGuire represents – with a ton of similarities.
But then rumblings of Traylor’s interest in an at-that-point possible TCU opening surfaced. As much it might sting to hear, that gig is better than Texas Tech right now because of more recent on-field success, recruiting opportunities, location, etc.
So, does the Texas Tech committee wait out Traylor – who in the meantime agreed to a bulky extension with UTSA and a costlier buyout – and risk being the bride’s maid to a conference rival?
--- SMU’s Sonny Dykes was high on the wish list from the beginning for a bunch of really good reasons, and he undoubtedly listened respectfully. But Tech was battling the fact that Dykes is in a very comfortable spot with the Mustangs. He is basically king of the castle at a school where no other sport is nearly the size of the football program. At Tech – even with his familiar name and previous time here as an assistant – there was going to be work to do to elevate the program to a spot where football was the first thought before men’s basketball and baseball.
Then the TCU job opened, and Dykes’ name immediately jumped to the top of that wish list. Which makes an awful lot of sense for some of the same reasons it would appeal to Traylor.
--- OK, so those two coaches are both likely candidates at TCU, which means either SMU or UTSA would open up and McGuire – a hot coaching commodity for any job in Texas – is likely to be a major target for either spot. Assuming McGuire jumped quickly at one of those, how does it look if Texas Tech did not at least test the water and see if he was a fit for the Red Raiders?
--- Waiting out the domino effect of the TCU job would’ve made sense at some levels, but then consider this: Baylor head coach Dave Aranda is a potential target for the LSU job after he spent several seasons there as the defensive coordinator. So what happens if Texas Tech bides its time to see what happens at TCU, but then the Baylor job opens as well? Doesn’t take a lot of rocket science to figure out that between the Horned Frogs and Bears, two candidates were likely to be snapped up quickly, leaving Texas Tech further down the pecking order – right about when the other high-profile schools on the coach search market start to zero in on who they want.
If you are Hocutt and the committee, there was an inherent need to gamble a little. The last two hires were fairly safe – Kliff Kingsbury coming home, Matt Wells because his name emerging for a lot of jobs three years ago – and neither worked. There was a chance to be really bold with Art Briles or Mike Leach, but that would have been drastically contrary to what Hocutt said was desired: Uniting the fan base.
While hiring McGuire will undoubtedly bring some naysayers to the surface because, well fans have a right to be fans, the overwhelming early indications in the social media-sphere is that McGuire is a highly popular fit.
Not “settling,” not an out-on-the-limb risk, no potential bidding wars with in-state programs. A safe gamble that required some calmness to not blink. Exactly what you’d want in a high-stakes poker game.
Did Texas Tech win the coaching search game? That will be determined over the next few seasons, but what isn’t debatable is that the Red Raiders’ brass played the game well.
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