WHERE: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX

WHEN: Saturday, September 11 @ 6 p.m.

WATCH IT ON: BIG 12/ESPN +

SERIES HISTORY vs SFA: Texas Tech leads 3-0

BET MGM LIVE ODDS: *odds unavailable as of Tuesday morning*

· The Lumberjacks return 21 of 22 starters from the 2020 season and have added seven FBS transfers who joined the program for the 2021 season, including four projected starters on offense (two WRs, a RB and a TE)

· SFA overcame a 10-point deficit in week one and scored 20-unanswered points on way to a 20-10 victory over Tarleton State.

· SFA put up 399 yards on offense against Tarleton State - 235 yards passing and 164 rushing. 15 of those rushing yards came from former Texas Tech running back De’Leon Ward, who is a member of the Lumberjack RB rotation. Ward was the second leading rusher for SFA in 2020.

· The Lumberjack defense held Tarleton State to 327 total yards last Saturday, 257 through the air but only gave up 70 yards rushing. The SFA defense also had three sacks, three INTs, and forced three fumbles in its opening match.

· Third year Lumberjack head coach Colby Carthel has West Texas ties with previous coaching stops as defensive line coach at Abilene Christian (2000-05) and defensive coordinator at West Texas A&M (2006-12). Carthel was one of four head coaches (A&M Commerce 2013-18) across the 27 scholarship football programs in the state of Texas to post three-consecutive 10 wins seasons in the last 10 years. Carthel also won a national championship with A&M Commerce in 2017.

· Nine Lumberjacks earned Southland All-Conference honors in 2020. SFA won its final game against conference rival Abilene Christian to close out the schools run in the Southland Conference. Stephen F. Austin joined the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) in 2021.

· The Lumberjacks posted a 6-4 record in 2020 and was the first winning season for SFA since 2011. All of SFA’s losses came to FBS competition (UTEP, SMU, Memphis, UTSA), while the ‘Jacks were unbeaten against FCS opponents last fall.

· The SFA Lumberjacks have four players named on the preseason All-WAC team for 2021: SOPH-WR Xavier Gipson, SR-OL Zach Ingram, JR-DL Brandon Thompson, & SOPH-LB Brevin Randle

· Over a three-game series history dating back to 2001, Texas Tech has averaged 62.67 points per game while SFA has averaged 11.

1) QB - 1 - Trae Self – SR (6’4”, 190lbs) – In last weekend’s season opening game against Tarleton State, Trae Self had 235 yards passing and a touchdown and added another 56 yards rushing.

Self threw for 2,550 yards and 12 passing TDs in 2019 and had 2,008 yards passing and 15 passing TDs in 2020. The Lumberjack QB has the ability to keep the ball and run with it. The third leading rusher for the SFA in 2020, Self had 235 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns a season ago. Self spent two years at Butler Community College in Kansas prior to SFA and completed 129 passes for 1,774 yards and 15 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman during his lone season as the starter in 2018. The key to neutralizing Self will be getting after him in the pass rush and capitalizing on turnover opportunities. Self has been sacked 42 times and thrown 19 interceptions in 20 career starts for the Lumberjacks.

2) RB - 26 – Miles Reed – SR (5’8”, 190lbs) – Miles Reed transferred to SFA in 2021 following three seasons at Hawaii where he had over 1600 yards on the ground and nine touchdowns. Reed was named to the 2020 Doak Walker Award watch list for the Rainbow Warriors. Miles led the running back by committee approach for the Lumberjacks last weekend. Reed out carried SFA’s leading rusher from a season ago, JaQuarion Turner, 19 to 7, and De’Leon Ward added just 5 carries. Reed had 71 yards rushing and scored on a 2-yard touchdown run against Tarleton. Miles hauled in 3 receptions during the game and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield appears to be a strength of his game. Reed was the leading receiver for Hawaii against Boise State last season and had 6 catches for 69 yards against the Broncos.

3) LB - 6 – Brevin Randle – SO (5’10”, 228lbs) – Brevin Randle was named the co-defensive player of the year and was a first team linebacker for the Southland Conference in 2020. Randle led the Lumberjacks a season ago with 68 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 2 INTS, 2 forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery. Played in all 11 games as a true freshman in 2019 and recorded 39 tackles and 1.5 TFL, good for 10th on the team in total tackles. Randle was named to the preseason All-WAC team in 2021. Randle recorded 4 tackles last weekend against Tarleton State.

Texas Tech kicks off its 2021 home schedule against an in-state FCS opponent for the second year in a row. While the 2020 home opener against FCS opponent Houston Baptist didn’t go the way Red Raider fans or Vegas bookmakers (-41.5) thought it would, I think this year’s game against Stephen F. Austin could be the dominant showing we all expect.

We caught a glimpse against Houston of just how effective Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough can be throwing the football when he’s given the time to stand in the pocket.

The offensive line isn’t coming off its best performance, but I don’t see the Lumberjacks being able to generate the consistent pass rush needed to disrupt Shough and the Texas Tech offense. WR Erik Ezukanma is a bad matchup for every opponent and SFA is next in a line of teams that will have to figure out a way to try and slow him down.

I’m expecting another heavy dose of Tahj Brooks this week. We got to see in the second half against Houston just what this defense is capable of, only 53 total yards allowed, and I expect them to be even more dominate this weekend. Texas Tech has yet to break the 60-point mark in the Matt Wells era and the 50-point mark has only been topped once. I’m calling for that streak to end on Saturday night against the ‘Jacks…

Score Prediction: Texas Tech 62, SFA 13