College basketball has many polarizing players. They are in various conferences, with various recruiting rankings, and a wide variety of scholarship offers. However, there are two guys that are getting a lot of attention that I want to highlight with the NCAA tournament getting underway this past weekend and the NBA draft approaching in only a few months.
These two players are the star guard from Texas Tech, Jarrett Culver, and Duke wing, R.J. Barrett. At the moment, the question is how far will they carry their respective teams in the tournament, but later the real question becomes who is the better guard and who will have the better NBA career?
Now let's dive into this starting with stats. This season Culver is averaging 18.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, with 1.4 steals and shooting 48.5 percent from the field, which earned him Big 12 player of the year award. As for Barrett, he is averaging 22.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 4.1 APG and shooting 45.7 percent from the field. Looking at just the raw numbers, it would be only natural to say Barrett is better. However, let’s look deeper into these numbers. For starters, Barrett takes 4.6 more shots per game than Culver and is on the floor with two other lottery picks. This doesn't allow defenses to key on Barrett like they do Culver and allows him to have significantly more space to work with on the court. As for Culver, he plays in a motion offense, that focuses on everyone on the floor getting touches. In my opinion, efficiency is the more important stat and not necessarily the quantity. Efficiency also takes into account the quality of the looks and when watching Duke games; Barrett takes a lot of shots in general, but many of them are bad shots and are most often from the 3-point line. The fact is that he takes so many shots; he is bound to make some, which would explain why his percentages are so low and why he scores so many points.
According to ESPN’s latest mock NBA draft, they have Barrett going 3rd overall and ranked as the best shooting-guard prospect and Culver going 6th and ranked as the 2nd best shooting-guard. Let’s look a few months into the future, right now the Dallas Mavericks have a 40 percent chance to receive the 4th overall pick and the Atlanta Hawks will likely follow that up with the 5th and 6th pick. Assuming Culver and Barrett are available to those teams in the draft, who would you pick? The clear and easy answer is Jarrett Culver. Other than being slightly more athletic and having a bigger physical frame, what does Barrett do better? Not a whole lot. There is a lot politics and exposure as to why Barrett has so much more hype than Culver. Barrett has been a five-star recruit since he was in the 8th grade and has been in the spotlight just as long. As for Culver, many people were not as familiar with him. He was not a Top 100 recruit and was arguably very under-recruited. Not to mention these two faced each other in early December and Culver vastly out played Barrett. Culver held Barrett to just 7 of 22 from the field for 16 points, one assist and three rebounds. Meanwhile, Culver shot 9 for 21 and had 25 points with four assist and six rebounds. Between the two Culver is more polished and skilled. Culver has a higher Offensive Rating, True Shooting Percentage, and Effective Field Goal Percentage than Barrett. For example, how many college guards/wings have a legit post-game? Very few. Culver already has a post-game that he uses to create his shot and create opportunities for others.
In the first two games of the NCAA tournament he averaged 22.5 points, nine rebounds and six assists. Culver would fit in very well with the Hawks or Mavericks, both teams have franchise center pieces at the ball-handler positions, especially for the Mavericks as they have star guard in Luka Doncic, a future superstar in Kristaps Porzingis, and a great coach in Carlisle with an identity. Culver can fit into any system you put him in and be productive, at worst he will be a three-and-D guy for the next 10-15 years. Now for his upside, he is a great two-way wing that can create his own shot and can score without the ball in his hands. He reminds me of Kris Middleton or Nick Anderson.
The biggest difference between the two prospects is the upside and the floor. Yes, Barrett has the higher upside due to his elite athletic ability, but what about his floor? Jarrett Culver is the safest pick in the NBA draft this year. At the very worst, Culver will be a Danny Green type of player. As for Barrett, there is no middle ground for him, he will either be a multi-time All-Star and All-NBA caliber player or a player that is always on the trade block. Both players are still developing and have things they need to work on, but right now at this very moment Culver is the better prospect.
Culver's journey continues later tonight as the Red Raiders face the Michigan Wolverines in the Sweet 16.
