The Juice: Revisiting last season's bold predictions
Last August, as I have done every summer for the past few years, I made 10 bold predictions concerning Texas Tech and the Big 12 for the upcoming football season. I nailed some, was close on others and completely missed the mark on the rest.
Overall, while I didn’t do nearly as poorly as I did in 2014, there’s still a lot of room for improvement in 2016.
1. Purple will be out this year in the Big 12. Kansas State will finish below .500 for the first time since Bill Snyder returned to the sideline and TCU will lose at least two games.
Correct. TCU finished the season 11-2 and Kansas State ended 6-7. I didn't expect the Wildcats to make a bowl game and should probably feel a little guilty about claiming this as a hit, but I don't. Were it not for a herculean comeback against Iowa State that involved coaching malpractice by Paul Rhoads, Kansas State would have finished 5-7 and missed out on the postseason. My conscience is clean.
2. Texas will cover the 12.5-point spread in its opener against Notre Dame.
Incorrect. Not even close. Texas was throttled 38-3 against Notre Dame. The Longhorns were outgained 527-163, logged a pathetic eight first downs and converted just two of its 14 third-down opportunities. It was a pretty clear sign of what was to come for Charlie Strong and UT in 2015.
3. Oklahoma State's quarterback situation in 2015 will be very reminiscent of Texas Tech's in 2014, with Mason Rudolph and J.W. Walsh playing the orange-tinted roles of Davis Webb and Pat Mahomes.
Incorrect. You could argue that this was partially correct, as J.W. Walsh played a ton for the Cowboys last fall - and even accounted for more total touchdowns than starter Mason Rudolph - but the quarterback situation in Stillwater this season was far more stable and productive than Texas Tech's in 2014.
4. The Nov. 27 Baylor-TCU matchup will not be the Big 12's Game of the Year.
Correct. It doesn't matter what metric you use to determine the Game of the Year - entertainment value or title implications - but it certainly wasn't TCU's 28-21 overtime slopfest win over Baylor. Bedlam ended up being the Big 12's de facto title game, and there were several games peppered throughout the conference schedule that were more entertaining than the 2015 edition of The Revivlary.
5. Pat Mahomes will win Texas Tech's No. 1 quarterback job. He'll finish the season with 4,250 passing yards -- the first Red Raider signal caller top 4,000 yards since Seth Doege in 2012 -- and post 36 total touchdowns and 10 interceptions. There will be arguments on this message board in December over whether Mahomes' sophomore season was more impressive than Graham Harrell's in 2006.
Correct. I undershot Pat Mahomes' passing numbers by a few hundred yards, but No. 5 started all 13 games and turned in one of the most statistically impressive seasons by a quarterback in Big 12 history. Mahomes completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 4,653 yards, 36 touchdowns and 15 interceptions to go along with 456 rushing yards and 10 scores.
Looking back, perhaps the most surprising thing is that there weren’t any arguments at all about how Graham Harrell’s 2006 season compared to Mahomes’ 2015 campaign. There was no room for debate as the latter was far-and-away more impressive.
6. The Red Raiders will still rank in the bottom half of the Big 12 in turnover margin, but will significantly improve their turnovers lost numbers from 28 in 2014 to 18.
Incorrect. This was close, as Texas Tech finished fifth in the Big 12 in turnover margin. The offense didn't improve as much as I expected in this area, committing just five fewer turnovers than it did in 2014. The defense made up for it in a big way, though, logging 10 more takeaways than it did the year before.
7. DeAndre Washington will come close, but he won't quite top his rushing total from last season. His red zone numbers, in particular his touchdown total, will be notably better. Washington's dip in production will largely be due to Justin Stockton, as he will rush for nearly 600 yards on the year. Overall, the Red Raiders' running game will be more efficient and productive in 2015.
Incorrect. DeAndre Washington did score a lot more than he did in 2014, but he also upped his rushing total by nearly 300 yards. Additionally, Justin Stockton's sophomore rushing numbers (367 yards) were actually down compared to his freshman output (396 yards). It’s a small consolation, but I was correct on my last note: The Red Raiders' 2,487 team rushing yards and 5.36 yards per carry average in 2015 were both significant improvements.
8. Texas Tech's scoring defense average will improve by 10 points in 2015 -- from 41 to 31 points per game -- which will be good for seventh in the Big 12 and a 30-spot jump in the national rankings. The team's run defense will be much improved from last season -- although, that's kind of a low bar -- and give up just 185 rushing yards per game in 2015.
Incorrect. This was a bad, bad, bad miss. The Red Raiders' scoring defense was actually worse in 2015 - from 41.3 points per game in 2014 to 43.6 - and the less said about the team's run defense the better. This would easily be my worst prediction from last year if not for...
9. For the first time in nearly a decade, the Red Raiders will not have any staff attrition this offseason.
Incorrect. Whoops. Kliff Kingsbury fired three defensive coaches days after Texas Tech finished the regular season, dismissed the Red Raiders' strength and conditioning staff a few weeks later and saw three of his offensive coaches - including Jabbar Juluke, who left for a job at LSU three weeks after Kingsbury hired him - leave for other jobs. Here's hoping the 2016-17 offseason is a bit less bumpy for the Red Raiders.
10. Texas Tech will slightly beat expectations and finish the regular season with a 7-5 record. It won't be easy, and a three-game losing streak against Arkansas, TCU and Baylor will cast a dark cloud over the first half of the season. Yet the Red Raiders will rebound and do something that they haven't done in several years: finish the season strong. The team will win four of its last six games, including home wins against Oklahoma State and Kansas State, and return to the postseason after a one-year hiatus.
Correct. I was off a bit on the journey - the Red Raiders beat Arkansas and lost to Oklahoma State - but the destination was exactly what I expected. Texas Tech bounced back from its disappointing 4-8 finish in 2014 to and finished the regular season with a 7-5 record.
Coming next week: My 10 bold predictions for 2016.
IN MY HEAD
Last year, nearly five months before Texas Tech opened its 2015 season, I posited that “the next great Texas Tech quarterback is either (Pat) Mahomes or someone who isn't old enough to get into an R-rated movie by himself.” How is everyone feeling about that statement now?
The underexplored angle of Jarrett Stidham’s departure from Baylor is that the high-flying Big 12 has struggled to sign and develop high-profile, blue-chip quarterbacks. In the last 12 recruiting classes (2005-16), current Big 12 programs have signed just seven Rivals100 signal callers: Austin Kendall (No. 77, 2016), Jarrett Stidham (No. 97, 2015), Jerrod Heard (No. 85, 2014), J.W. Walsh (No. 86, 2011), Garrett Gilbert (No. 18, 2009), Jevan Snead (No. 61, 2006) and Josh Freeman (No. 92, 2006). If you exclude Kendall, as he just signed in February, Freeman is the only one out of the lot to live up to his billing in the Big 12.
Currently Reading: Six Frigates: The Epic History of the Founding of the U.S. Navy. I’m surprised I never thought to pick this up earlier but I downloaded it on a whim during a layover in Dallas yesterday. By the time my flight landed in Lubbock, I had torn through the first 15 percent. I knocked out another two chapters before I went to bed last night. This is a must-read if you’re interested in American history.
OBLIGATORY COLLECTION OF WORD COUNT-PADDING LINKS
- Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport will be one of five airports in the United States outfitted with automated TSA screening lanes.
- I don’t pretend to understand much about this Pokemon Go craze, but it is pretty hysterical that it is sending folks to odd places like strip clubs and graveyards.
- Elon Musk thinks that it is “overwhelmingly likely” that what we perceive as reality is actually just a simulation.
- In case you missed it last week, Sports Illustrated posted a really interesting Q&A with Texas Tech head basketball coach Chris Beard.
- Jordan Spieth is the latest high-profile golfer to bow out of the Rio Olympics, meaning the world’s Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 will be absent.
- This has never seemed like a good idea.