Revisiting last season's bold predictions
Last August, as I have done every summer for the past few years, I made 10 bold predictions concerning Texas Tech and the Big 12 for the upcoming football season. I nailed some, was close on others and completely missed the mark on the rest.
Overall, while one could perhaps argue about the boldness of some of these predictions, I was right far more often than I was wrong.
1. Oklahoma will beat Kansas State in the Big 12’s rebooted title game.
Half correct. Oklahoma did win the Big 12's rebooted title game, but it's opponent was TCU. The Sooners topped the Horned Frogs 41-17 to advance to the College Football Playoff. Kansas State, meanwhile, finished the season in a four-way tie for fourth place in the Big 12 standings.
2. Sell Texas, buy Baylor.
Incorrect. Texas didn't have the season that many Longhorns fans were hoping for or expecting, but the team was picked to finish fourth in the Big 12 preseason poll and ended up in a four-way tie for fourth at the end of the year. Baylor, meanwhile, lost a program-record 11 games in 2017.
3. Shimonek will throw for 4,200 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
I'll give myself partial credit here, as Nic Shimonek finished his lone season as Texas Tech's starting quarterback with 3,963 passing yards, 34 total touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
4. For the first time since 2003, the Red Raiders will feature three 1,000-yard receivers.
Incorrect. This was almost as big of a miss as my Baylor prediction, as Keke Coutee was the only Red Raider that topped 1,000 yards on the season. Dylan Cantrell was second with 816 yards, with T.J. Vasher running a distant third at 545. I suggested last year that Derrick Willies would "give the Red Raiders their first consistent outside threat" under Kliff Kingsbury and the former JUCO All-American ended up being a massive disappointment in 2017.
5. Texas Tech’s run game will be marginally more productive than it was in 2016.
Correct. The Red Raiders were moderately more productive on a yards per rush basis (3.99 up from 3.20) but were less productive in the red zone (2.14 down from 3.34) and scored three fewer rushing touchdowns.
6. The Red Raiders will finish the season ranked in the top four of the Big 12 in turnover margin.
Correct. I undershot this, as Texas Tech finished the season ranked first in the Big 12 in turnover margin (plus-11) and tied for sixth nationally in forced turnovers.
7. Texas Tech’s defense will improve its scoring defense average by at least 10 points per game.
Correct. David Gibbs' Red Raider defense improved its scoring defense average from 43.5 points per game down to 32.2.
8. Dakota Allen will win Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year.
Incorrect. Dakota Allen finished the season ranked seventh in the Big 12 in total tackles (102) and tied for the Big 12 lead in interceptions by a linebacker (2), but TCU defensive end Ben Banogu took home the Big 12's Defensive Newcomer of the Year nod.
9. Texas Tech will go 7-5.
Incorrect. Texas Tech was a 31-yard field goal away from beating Kansas State and finishing the regular season 7-5, but the kick was no good and the Red Raiders entered December with a 6-6 record.
10. Kliff Kingsbury will return in 2018 for his sixth season as Texas Tech’s head coach.
Correct. Texas Tech athletic director Kirby Hocutt announced Kingsbury's return for 2018 in the immediate aftermath of the Red Raiders' victory over Texas in the regular-season finale.