With the season 60 days away, we decided to break down the schedule and rank the games from easiest to most difficult.
Texas Tech is coming off back-to-back four win seasons, but a flurry of significant offseason additions and a light non-conference schedule is sure to give fans hope of a rebound year.
We start off the list with a home game in week two...
12) September 11th vs. Stephen F. Austin
A pretty obvious pick for the easiest game of the year. Any home game vs an FCS team should be a blowout, though Tech has encountered struggles sometimes in these games, most notably a 4th quarter win in 2014 vs. Central Arkansas.
SFA had a solid season in 2020, going 6-4 but got trounced by 43 against SMU and 42 against Memphis. Expect more of the same here.
KEY PLAYER: RB Da'Leon Ward
The former Texas Tech running back will return for his "Super Senior" season, and will be looking to make a statement against his former team back in Lubbock.
11) September 18th vs. Florida International
The Panthers went 0-5 in 2020, with several games postponed or cancelled due to COVID.
They threw for an abysmal 617 in those five games, though they did have a good rushing attack.
Texas Tech hasn't lost to a Group of 5 team since going down to South Florida in the 2017 Birmingham Bowl.
KEY PLAYER: RB D'vonte Price
Another "Super Senior", Price has rushed for over 1,500 yards in his career so far. He had his most productive season in 2020, totaling 581 yards, four touchdowns and a whopping 6.8 yards per carry.
10) October 16th @ Kansas
Not sure what else there is to say about this matchup. Kansas has been terrible and made another change at head coach, brining in Buffalo's Lance Leipold.
Leipold is a good coach, but they're coming off an 0-9 season and have very little talent across the board. They should be another comfortable win, though last time the Red Raiders went to Lawrence they somehow managed to pull defeat from the jaws of victory.
KEY PLAYER: QB Jalon Daniels
Daniels saw snaps in several games as a true freshman, impressing with his ability to move and make plays outside of the pocket. This is a big year for him and he will have to be more consistent if he wants to be the quarterback of the future for the Jayhawks.
9) September 4th @ Houston
Not an easy game by any means but another game vs. a Group of 5 team that, in theory, Tech should win most of the time.
Dana Holgorsen has not had a good time as head coach of the Cougars so far, with a record of 7-13 through two seasons.
This game is the season opener and will set the tone for the rest of the year in many ways.
KEY PLAYER: QB Clayton Tune
Tune is now heading into his fourth season of college football, and looks to be the starter again after starting every game during the 2020 season.
He's been solid with a career 7.4 yards per attempt and 34 touchdowns on 581 passes.
8) November 27th @ Baylor
Baylor was not very good in 2020, finishing just 2-7 in Dave Aranda's first season. They were okay defensively but the offense was a train wreck, and they made multiple changes on that side of the ball including at offensive coordinator.
They lost long-time starter Charlie Brewer and have no clear cut replacement on the roster, which should make for an interesting quarterback battle.
Last time Tech went to Waco they should have beaten an undefeated Baylor team, but the refs were not having it that day.
KEY PLAYER: Whoever wins the quarterback battle
Jacob Zeno, Gerry Bohanon, Blake Shapen and Kyron Drones are the contenders. Of the four, Zeno is the one who should scare Tech fans the most. Bohanon has not proven to be anything more than a runner so far in his career and Shapen and Drones, a true freshman, are unproven.
7) October 23rd vs. Kansas State
Annually the most annoying game on the schedule, because they simply do not make mistakes while the Red Raiders always do against these guys.
In 2020 Tech made a furious rally to take the lead, but a blown tackle near the sideline and a holding call offensively on 4th down effectively ended Tech's chances.
If you want to start making bowl games consistently, this is a home game Tech has to win.
KEY PLAYER: QB Skylar Thompson
Thompson is a very good, efficient and experienced quarterback who missed most of the 2020 season after getting hurt early in the aforementioned game vs. Tech.
A "Super Senior", Thompson is a dynamic thrower and runner and one of the best in the Big 12.
6) October 9th vs. TCU
Texas Tech this offseason took TCU's offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie and TCU's All-Big 12 tackle in T.J. Storment. Could they take the win vs. the Horned Frogs in 2021?
Who better to go up against Gary Patterson's defense than Cumbie, who after seven seasons in Ft. Worth certainly knows how to attack it.
This game is always tense, close, and in recent years the road team has faired well. Tech will look to change that this fall.
KEY PLAYER: QB Max Duggan
Duggan is a very good runner who until now has been an opportunistic thrower. They have good weapons and for TCU to take the next step, he will have to be better.
Fortunately the Red Raiders strength is at linebacker, which should help them contain the former 4-star gunslinger from Iowa.
5) October 2nd @ West Virginia
The surprise win of the 2020 season, West Virginia is a team that Tech is actually 2-0 against the previous two meetings.
Morgantown is always a tough place to play though, and Mountaineer head coach Neal Brown is building a good program up there.
KEY PLAYER: QB Jarret Doege
The Lubbock native had a solid 2020, throwing for over 2,500 yards but needs a bit more consistency, especially when it comes to putting the ball in the end zone.
Look for him to start again in 2021.
4) November 20th vs. Oklahoma State
Another program that Matt Wells has faired well against. Tech won this game in 2019 and barely lost a shootout to the Pokes in Stillwater last year, which included a pick 6 and an onside kick return touchdown for the home team.
OSU lost two of its stars on offense to the NFL in Chuba Hubbard and Tylan Wallace, but they're the type of program to replace those guys without much of an issue.
Quarterback Spencer Sanders is another guy on this list that simply needs to be better for his team to take the next step.
KEY PLAYER: QB Spencer Sanders
As mentioned above, Sanders needs to be better. 8.1 yards per attempt is great, while 14 touchdowns to eight interceptions is not. He capped off his season with a great game against Miami in the Cheez-It Bowl which he will look to build off of.
3) September 25th @ Texas
This game will be the Big 12 debut for new Longhorn head coach Steve Sarkisian.
Texas is coming off a 7-3 season, which would be enough for most programs, but it wasn't in Austin as they decided to can Tom Herman.
With Sam Ehlinger gone Texas will need to find a quarterback, with the two leading contenders being Casey Thompson and Hudson Card.
Tech is 2-1 in their last three trips to Texas.
KEY PLAYER: RB Bijan Robinson
The former 5-star recruit is coming off a good freshman year where he put up 703 yards and is receiving some hype as one of the best in the country.
2) November 13th vs. Iowa State
The name Matt Campbell alone should give Tech fans nightmares.
Campbell is 5-0 vs. the Red Raiders, and most games have been complete blowouts. He now has his program rolling, coming off a 9 win season and a Fiesta Bowl win.
They return quarterback Brock Purdy for what feels like his millionth season of college football and running back Breece Hall is a complete freak.
KEY PLAYER: DE Will McDonald
McDonald is Iowa State's top pass rusher, and enters 2021 with 17.5 career sacks, including 10.5 in 2020 alone.
1) October 30th @ Oklahoma
The best in the Big 12 year in and year out, this is also the program that has given Matt Wells the biggest problems in his two seasons so far.
Lincoln Riley is always going to have that offense putting up points, but now the defense is coming together under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch.
Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler is receiving early Heisman talk after a very good first season as the starter.
KEY PLAYER: QB Spencer Rattler
Even though they have another 5-star behind him in Caleb Williams, Rattler is the key for this offense. He put up over 3,000 yards and 28 passing touchdowns during a COVID season of 2020. That'll get it done.