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Recruiting is the lifeblood for college football programs, and the recruiting industry usually sees a 17 or 18 year old version of each prospect at the high school level before assigning a star ranking.
Every prospect develops at a different pace, a 6-foot prospect could graduate at 6-foot-3 or the 260-pound defensive lineman could graduate at a cut 290-pounds. It is a very imperfect science, and certainly a subject of much debate, but it doesn't stop at the high school or college level.
The NFL Draft begins later this week and mock drafts have become the focus of many football fans over the past few months. The recruiting rankings and mock draft processes are similar in many ways, but the biggest similarity is ranking the position groups and proclaiming one prospect as the "better" prospect on that given day.
There are many NFL mock drafts to review, but for this exercise we are using NFL Media Analyst Daniel Jeremiah's latest mock draft. This particular first round mock was updated yesterday, Monday April 20th, and should provide the most up to date "big board" leading into this Thursday's draft.
So the question today is...where they ranked as high school prospects?
No. 1 - QB Joe Burrow
No. 2 - DE Chase Young
No. 3 - CB Jeff Okudah
No. 4 - OT Tristan Wirfs
No. 5 - QB Justin Herbert
No. 6 - QB Tua Tagovailoa
No. 7 - DT Derrick Brown
No. 8 - OT Jedrick Wills
No. 9 - OT Mekhhi Becton
No. 10 - LB/S Isaiah Simmons
No. 11 - WR CeeDee Lamb
No. 12 - WR Jerry Jeudy
No. 13 - WR Henry Ruggs III
No. 14 - OT Andrew Thomas
No. 15 - DT Javon Kinlaw
No. 16 - CB C.J. Henderson
No. 17 - DE K'Lavon Chaisson
No. 18 - DE Yetur Gross-Matos
No. 19 - CB A.J. Terrell
No. 20 - WR Justin Jefferson
No. 21 - LB Kenneth Murray
No. 22 - CB Jaylon Johnson
No. 23 - DE A.J. Epenesa
No. 24 - LB Patrick Queen
No. 25 - WR Tee Higgins
No. 26 - OT Joshua Jones
No. 27 - OT Austin Jackson
No. 28 - LB Zack Baun
No. 29 - WR Brandon Aiyuk
No. 30 - QB Jordan Love
No. 31 - DT Ross Blacklock
No. 32 - C Cesar Ruiz
BY THE NUMBERS...
There could be an entirely different conversation about which programs develop these three-star and two-star prospects into first round NFL draft picks, but for this particular conversation the numbers show an overwhelming majority of the projected first round draft picks were five-star and four-star players out of high school.
The answer is not and cannot be "recruit five and four star players", because for every first round draft pick there are several other highly ranked prospects who simply never become the player they were projected to be at the college level.
As always, the answer lies somewhere in the middle and probably varies per college program or college coaching staff. The combination of pure talent or highly ranked prospects, plus the ability to identify the right fits and develop them within your system or program are essential - even at the "blueblood" level in college football.
