Advertisement
basketball Edit

Does Texas Tech already have its next Keenan Evans?

Keenan Evans
Keenan Evans (John Weast/Getty Images)

There was a time, believe it or not, that Texas Tech was not a basketball power. The Red Raiders weren't making deep tournament runs and they weren't signing top-10 classes. Instead they were relying on recruiting under-the-radar gems, and second year head coach Tubby Smith found just the one in Berkner guard Keenan Evans.

By the time Evans was a senior he was one of the best players in the country, had an argument for Big 12 Player of the Year and led Tech to it's first ever Elite Eight. He wasn't alone by any means, a couple of guys named Jarrett Culver and Zhaire Smith also contributed that year among others, but Evans was the engine who made that team go.

Saying all that, it's easy to remember senior Keenan and not sophomore Keenan. He was still a quality player who played over 20 minutes per game and averaged 9/3/3, but nowhere near the 17 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists a night beast he was in 2017-18.

What does that have to do with the current team? Enter sophomore guard Kyler Edwards. Like Evans, Edwards was not the highest ranked recruit though he was in the Rivals150. Like Evans, Edwards came off the bench as a true freshman and is now a starter as a sophomore. Still, Edwards is very arguably ahead of where Evans was as a sophomore, and the stats, team success and accolades bear that out.

Traditional Stats

Advertisement
Stats as sophomores
Points per game Rebounds per game Assists per game Steals per game Field goal %

Keenan Evans (2015-16)

8.7

2.9

2.9

1.0

.412

Kyler Edwards* (2019-20)

11.9

4.4

3.0

1.0

.416

* Edwards' stats through 22 games


As you can see Edwards, through 22 games, has Evans tied or beat across the board. To paint a full picture, Kyler does play an average of eight (8) more minutes per game, but he has earned those minutes as one of the best players on the team. Both players are regular starters, with Evans starting 31 out of his 32 games that season and Edwards starting all 22 so far this year.

Evans had sort of a coming out party in 2015-16. That year the Red Raiders would go on to make the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2007, and Evans played a key role late in the season in three straight wins against ranked teams.

Against #14 Iowa State, Evans scored 17 points with three rebounds, two assists and a steal.

Against #21 Baylor, Evans scored a career high (at the time) 21 points with one rebound, five assists, four steals and a block.

Against #3 Oklahoma, Evans scored 14 points with one rebound, three assists and two steals.

He also shot over 60% from the field in all three wins.

Advanced stats

Advanced stats as sophomores
ORtg DRtg TS% WS/40 BPM

Keenan Evans (2015-16)

106.9

105.5

.536

.106

4.2

Kyler Edwards (2019-20)

104.8

93.4

.524

.143

6.2

* Edwards' stats through 22 games

ORtg -- Offensive Rating; An estimate of points produced per 100 possessions.

DRtg -- Defensive Rating; an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions.

TS% -- True Shooting Percentage; A measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account 2-point field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

WS/40 -- Win Shares Per 40 Minutes; an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 40 minutes (average is approximately .100).

BPM -- Box Plus/Minus; A box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team.

Evans slightly leads in Offensive Rating and True Shooting Percentage but Edwards has significant leads in the other advanced statistics.

Defensive Rating is largely a product of your teammates, and Edwards clearly has an advantage playing with the current Red Raiders and for Chris Beard and Mark Adams.

All in all though Edwards' stats here are better than Evans' as a sophomore.

Accolades

Evans didn't really start receiving accolades until his breakout junior season, where he averaged over 15 points and was named to the All-Big 12 Third Team.

Evans helped Tech reach the NCAA tournament as a sophomore for the first time since 2007. Even though they lost in the first round, that was still a big deal and helped lay the foundation of the successes in future years.

Edwards this season has already been named Big 12 Player of the Week after averaging 23 points per game in wins @ Kansas State and vs Iowa State. He is currently 17th in the Big 12 in scoring, averaging 11.9 points per game and is tied for 11th in assists per game with 3.0.

Edwards also ranks in the top 15 in blocked shots per game, assist/turnover ratio and is seventh in minutes played per game, showing the ability play a big role and still be productive.

As of right now Tech is projected to make the NCAA Tournament as an 8th or 9th seed depending on where you look.

Conclusion

Does Tech have its next Keenan Evans in Kyler Edwards? It's certainly possible, considering where both players were. Evans took a massive leap as a junior, and it's no guarantee Edwards will do the same.

Their games are similar, with Edwards being one of the top finishers from inside the arc in the country. He uses his strength at the rim and has finished through contact multiple times this season, plays that will remind you of Keenan.

Edwards will have to take a big step up in efficiency if he wants to match junior and senior Evans, but through two seasons he's right in line with Tech's former Consensus All-American.

Advertisement