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Published Nov 18, 2021
Week 12 Preview: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Mark Moore  •  RedRaiderSports
Staff Writer
Twitter
@markmoore23

GAME DETAILS:

WHERE: Jones AT&T Stadium

WHEN: 7:00 p.m. Saturday

WATCH IT ON: FOX

SERIES HISTORY: Texas Tech leads the series 23-22-1. The Red Raiders have won two of the last three matchups, but Oklahoma State has won 10 of the last 12 and five of the last six games in Lubbock.

CURRENT FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK ODDS: Oklahoma State -9.5, (OVER/UNDER): 56.5

TEXAS TECH OFFENSE VS. OKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE

OKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSE VS. TEXAS TECH DEFENSE

What should we know about the Cowboys?

Oklahoma State is 9-1 on the year. The Cowboys got their season started by beating Missouri State, 23-16, Tulsa, 28-23, and Boise State, 21-20, to wrap up non-conference play. Oklahoma State would kick off the Big 12 season by beating Kansas State, 31-20, Baylor 24-14, and Texas 32-24. The Cowboys only loss was in their road game at Iowa State, coming up just short, 24-21. They would bounce back to beat Kansas, 53-3, West Virginia, 24-3, and TCU, 63-17, and are riding a three-game win streak headed into Lubbock this weekend.

Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is currently in his 17th season at the helm for the Cowboys and has a, 146-68, record as head coach. Gundy has led the Cowboys to 15 straight bowl appearances and has 10-5 record in bowl games. Gundy’s best season came in 2011 when he won the Big 12 title and finished the season ranked third in the AP poll. With the recent departure of Gary Patterson at TCU, Gundy is now the longest tenured coach in the Big 12 and the third longest in college football. His only losing season at Oklahoma State came back in 2005, his first year as head coach.

The Cowboys are ranked 3rd out of 130 FBS schools in total defense, giving up 282.8 yards per game, and 8th in scoring defense, allowing 16.4 points per game. They’re second in the nation in third down conversion percentage defense, allowing the opposition to convert on only 24.8 percent of their attempts.

The Oklahoma State defense has been stout against the run, ranked 6th in the nation and allowing 90.9 yards per game on the ground. The Cowboys also feature a strong pass defense, ranked 18th and are allowing 192.9 yards per game through the air.

The Cowboys are tied for first in the nation with 37 sacks this season and 15 different defenders have recorded at least one sack. Oklahoma State has been able to pressure and sack the quarterback while also generating a consistent presence in the backfield against the opposing team’s running game. The Cowboys are 7th in tackles for loss per game with a 7.7 TFL average.

Oklahoma State is ranked 41st in scoring offense, putting up 32.2 points per game and 60th in total offense, averaging 416.6 yards per game.

The Cowboys’ 83rd ranked passing offense has been inconsistent at times this season, with Spencer Sanders having eclipsed 200-yards passing only three times. Oklahoma State averages 215.9 yards per game through the air.

The Cowboys have run the football on roughly 62 percent of their snaps and are 32nd in rushing offense, averaging 200.7 yards per game on the ground.

Three Cowboys to keep an eye on:

1)     Running back – Jaylen Warren

Currently fourth in the Big 12 in rushing with 1,041 yards and 10 touchdowns. Warren averages 5 yards per carry and is a solid receiver out of the backfield, averaging 10.3 yards per reception. Warren transferred to Oklahoma State after spending two seasons at Utah State and rushed for 821 yards on 151 carries (5.44 YPC), with 8 touchdowns in his Aggie career. Warren was named to the Doak Walker Award watch list in 2020 but was left off the preseason watch list this season. In 2018, Warren helped lead Snow College to an 8-3 record, finishing the season ranked 9th. Warren rushed for 1,435 yards and 15 touchdowns and was named the NJCAA Offensive Player of the Year and a first-team All-American. Warren transferred to Utah State the following season.

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2)     Quarterback – Spencer Sanders 

The three-year starter has 1,758 yards through the air and 14 touchdowns, while adding 369 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground this season. Sanders is completing 61.7 percent of his passes and is averaging 10.4 rushing attempts per game. He was named to the honorable mention All-Big 12 team a season ago, passing for 2,007 yards and 14 touchdowns. Sanders had his best game on the ground last season against Texas Tech, rushing for 78 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts. He also threw three interceptions against the Red Raiders back in 2019. Sanders has made 28 starts over three seasons at Oklahoma State and has 5,830 yards passing and 44 touchdowns in his career.

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3)     Linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez

The super senior linebacker was given second team All-Big 12 honors in 2019 and 2020 and was an honorable mention selection in 2018. Rodriquez led the Cowboys in tackles the past two years. His 9.3 tackles per game leads the defense, and he's tied for 18th in the country in tackles with 93. His 3 forced fumbles on the season also leads the defense. Rodriguez was named to the Butkus Award watchlist in 2020 and 2021 and has 31 tackles for loss and 372 total tackles over five seasons.

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Analyzing the matchup:

Donovan Smith was key last weekend in neutralizing a tough Cyclone defense. He’ll have to be great again on Saturday with one of the nation’s premiere defenses coming to town. Smith’s ability to keep the ball and run forces the defense to account for him on every play, and he appeared to give the Red Raider running game a shot in the arm. The 6.1 yards per carry last weekend was the highest average for Texas Tech in Big 12 play and the 207 rushing yards was the second highest total of the season. Smith has been equally impressive through the air, completing 77.97% of his pass attempts and has a passer rating of 176.71. The Red Raider offensive line, for the second week in a row, may be facing the toughest task of all. Oklahoma State leads the nation in sacks and is seventh in tackles for loss. For Smith and the offense to be successful, it’s going to have to start up front with Texas Tech establishing the line of scrimmage.

KEY OFFENSIVE MATCHUP: The Texas Tech Offensive Line vs. The Oklahoma State Defensive Line

The Oklahoma State offense has been good but not great this season. The goal of their offense every week is to establish the running game and then try to bait the defense with play action passes downfield. The Cowboys were held to just 107 yards rushing in their only loss of the season, and their offense tends to go as the running game goes. Oklahoma State scored a season high 63 points against TCU last weekend, with 8 of their 9 touchdowns coming on the ground, but this isn’t an offense built for shootouts like they have been in years past. Neutralizing their ground attack will be crucial for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech has been stout against the run the last three weeks, holding Deuce Vaughn, Kennedy Brooks, and Breece Hall to a combined 138 yards rushing. That success will need to continue this week to pull off an upset.

KEY DEFENSIVE MATCHUP: The Texas Tech Defensive Front vs. Jaylen Warren